The race for fourth is hotting up. Tottenham, Newcastle, Liverpool and Brighton head into the March international break with seven points separating them, and plenty of games in hand for the teams playing catch-up. All four teams have shown signs that they have the quality to finish fourth and earn the Premier League's final Champions League qualification spot. On the flip side, they have also each slipped up at different times, just when they appear to be in pole position.
With these four teams facing between 10 and 13 more games before the end of the 2022/23 season, we decided that the two-week break was a good time to assess each side's top-four chances. Here, we have analysed each team's tactics, identified one positive sign about their play of late, and suggested one reason to be less optimistic over their Champions League hopes.
This topic was also discussed in a recent episode of CV Spaces, our weekly Twitter Space, which you can listen to via the tweet below. You can also keep up to date about future CV Spaces, which are hosted live on Twitter, by following our official account here.
Tottenham: Currently 4th
Positive: Chances for Kane
A major positive for Tottenham in 2022/23 has been their chance creation for Harry Kane, who is the Premier League’s second-highest goalscorer, with 21 goals so far. This figure means Kane has already bettered his goal tally from three of the last four seasons, and he only needs three more goals to top the other – the 23 he scored in 2020/21. From their 3-4-3 shape under Antonio Conte, this season the two wide forwards/number 10s drop deeper to receive than they had previously, allowing Kane to stay higher for longer and occupy the opposition’s centre-backs (below).
Other players have also taken on some of the creative burden. When Rodrigo Bentancur has been fit, his ability to get between the boxes has also been crucial, while Ivan Perisic’s creativity from left wing-back has also helped. Kane is now able to receive in behind and stay central to get on the end of crosses more than he has been in previous campaigns.
Negative: Lack of central protection
Tottenham are simply conceding far too many goals for a side that plays a fairly defensive brand of football and uses a back five when out of possession. With 40 goals conceded, they have a worse defensive record than any other team currently in the Premier League’s top 12. A big part of the problem is how easy opponents find it to penetrate through the middle of the pitch, especially through their midfield line. This is due to poor positioning (below), inadequate screening, and poor decision-making by the players as to when to hold their position and when to jump out to engage an opponent. This means that the centre-backs are constantly needed to move out of the back line to cover or make an intervention, which creates gaps in dangerous areas for opposition attackers to exploit.
Newcastle: 5th
Positive: The front six
Although Eddie Howe sets Newcastle up in what appears a 4-3-3 shape on paper, his side will often convert to a back three when in possession, with right-back Kieran Trippier advancing. This allows Miguel Almirón to move inside either with or without the ball, where he is joined by the advancing number eights in attack. Those three players – plus centre-forward Alexander Isak or Callum Wilson – create a central four, with Allan Saint-Maximin or Joelinton holding the width on the left (below). Newcastle have consistently pushed their opponents’ defence back this season, creating space in front of the defence to shoot from distance. Almirón, Wilson, Joe Willock, Saint-Maximin and Bruno Guimarães have all scored from outside the box this season.
Negative: Concerns at left-back
Despite conceding a league low of 19 goals, Newcastle’s expected goals against stands far higher, at 29. Their opponents have exploited the space around left-back Dan Burn too often. Burn is crucial to Howe’s side converting to the aforementioned back three when they have the ball, but he isn’t a natural full-back and is sometimes beaten too easily when a winger isolates him. Howe knows this, so he tries to compensate with a central midfielder or the left winger working back to help Burn out (below), but this creates space elsewhere that can be exploited. Also, the gap between Burn and left centre-back Sven Botman is often too big. Opponents have taken advantage of that a few times, even if Nick Pope's heroics in goal have kept their goals conceded down.
Liverpool: 6th
Positive: Fluid front three
New signings Cody Gakpo and Darwin Núñez have started to look like a good partnership, with their well-timed, co-ordinated runs proving effective alongside Mo Salah’s threat from the right. Their rotations and threat in behind have helped Liverpool look far more dangerous in transition – much like they used to at their best under Jürgen Klopp. Salah stays on the right or moves into inside-right positions, while Gakpo drops centrally and Núñez inverts from the left side to end up as a centre-forward. During sustained possession, meanwhile, Liverpool overload their right side, with Jordan Henderson and Trent Alexander-Arnold joining Salah. Núñez and Gakpo then form a centre-forward pair in the middle (below), which in turn creates lots of space for Andy Robertson to attack from left-back. The fluidity and timing of Liverpool’s rotations up front is almost identical to how the front three of Salah, Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino played under Klopp. Although they are not playing at the levels they did with those three in attack, there are lots of positive signs about this new-look front line.
Negative: Defensive transitions
Although Liverpool appear to be back to something looking ever so slightly like their brilliant best in attack, their counter-pressing in the middle third has been nothing like what it once was. Their poor performance in this area has meant fewer attacks following a midfield regain – a key feature of their success under Klopp – and also more counter-attacks for the opposition. Fabinho hasn’t looked himself, lacking the energy and intensity to press in midfield, while Thiago, Jordan Henderson and James Milner are all over 30 and unable to maintain the work rate that is required. With no pressure on the ball, opponents are able to look up and pick their pass forward in midfield, so Liverpool’s back four are forced to retreat before the pass comes (below). This then creates space between the lines for opponents to receive, turn and attack the Liverpool goal.
Brighton: 7th
Positive: De Zerbi’s build-up play
Brighton’s deep build-up and how they use a double pivot is typical of a Roberto De Zerbi team. They have a strong base to build from, using the full width of the pitch to stretch the opposition’s press, and then they effectively find gaps to penetrate into midfield centrally (below). The players in the double pivot drop at a specific moment before setting the ball back to a forward-facing defender, who then breaks the next line with a first-time pass. De Zerbi’s Brighton have picked up his style of football impressively quickly, and they have looked very effective in drawing the opposition out with these kinds of patterns. They then change the speed of their play to penetrate further into the opposition half and create chances. There are lots of positive signs about this Brighton team.
Negative: Problems facing counter-attacks
Brighton have been susceptible when facing counter-attacks that start deep in opposition territory, usually after a failed attack or failure to lock the ball in the final third following a set-piece. Gaps between their full-backs and centre-backs have been an issue in these moments, with opposing wide forwards getting in behind on the break all too often (below). The central players do a decent job of forcing the opposition wide, but the team’s poor efforts in delaying wide counter-attacks – to allow teammates to make recovery runs – needs addressing.
To learn more about football tactics and gain insights from coaches at the top of the game, visit CV Academy
